Adding Value to Your Business

Business & Bagels is a free breakfast series hosted by Duke’s Executive Education, where Fuqua School of Business faculty members share research with members of the community. The series addresses topics of interest to organizational leaders who are looking for new ideas to spark their problem-solving and innovation initiatives.

November 21st: Do Inverted Yield Curves Still Precede Recessions?

Duke Executive Education invites you to our next Business & Bagels event featuring Finance Professor Campbell Harvey, a leading financial expert and co-founder of the Duke CFO Survey. Professor Harvey will discuss how inverted yield curves foreshadow the future state of our economy and how they impact your business’s investments and hiring plans, as well as your personal finances.

Prepare now for an economic downturn

Professor Harvey’s research demonstrates that yield curves have inverted 8-18 months before each economic recession since the 1960s. An inversion occurs when long-term yields, such as on a 10-year Treasury bond, are lower than short-term yields, as for a three-month Treasury bill. His indicator is widely followed by businesses and policy makers.  

In both the second and third quarters of 2019, the yield curve was inverted leading to a recession "code red."  While the yield curve has recently uninverted, Professor Harvey’s research indicates not all is fine just yet. His model links the slope of the yield curve to economic growth, and whether that’s currently flat, slightly upward sloping, or inverted, the current state indicates low growth. Investors, executives, and consumers should still heed these signs and prepare for slower economic growth. 

As the possibility of a recession looms, Professor Harvey will explain how you can take steps to protect both your firm’s investments as well as your own, potentially resulting in a “soft-landing.”

You will leave with an understanding of how deploying the yield curve and other indicators can enhance risk management at your firm

 

Follow Professor Harvey on LinkedIn:  http://linkedin.com/in/camharvey

Register for the upcoming Business & Bagels Event

Thursday, November 21st

7:30-9:00 a.m.

Research Triangle Foundation of North Carolina

Meeting Room A

12 Davis Drive, Durham,27709

Contact Details

Duke University's Fuqua School of Business
100 Fuqua Drive
Durham, NC 27708-0120 USA
Tel +1.919.660.8011
Toll Free +1.800.372.3932

Office Hours
Monday - Friday
8:30 a.m. - 5:00 p.m.

Business & Bagels Program Topics

2019 Program Topics 

Topic Speaker
 Do Inverted Yield Curves Still Precede Recessions?   Campbell Harvey, PhD, Professor of Finance
 Optimizing Business Processes  Kevin Shang, PhD, Professor of Operations Management
 Are You Prepared for the Next Recession?    John Graham, PhD, D. Richard Mead, Jr. Family Professor of Finance  
 Cultures and Communication  Jeremy Petranka, Assistant Dean 
 The Impact of Incentives on Outcomes  Ryan McDevitt, Associate Professor, Economics 

 

2018 Program Topics 

Topic Speaker
 When Knowing Less Leads to Better Decisions  Jack Soll, Associate Professor, Management and Organizations, Duke's Fuqua School of Business
 Turning Data into a Competitive Advantage  Jeremy Petranka, Assistant Dean of MMS and MQM Programs, and Professor, Business Economics, Duke's Fuqua School of Business
 The Impact of Brands on Relationships  Gavan Fitzsimons, Marketing and Psychology Professor, Duke's Fuqua School of Business

 

2017 Program Topics

Topic Speaker
 Can Analytics Improve Your Decisions?  Peng Sun, Professor, Decision Sciences, Duke’s Fuqua School of Business
 Policy Solutions for Health Innovation (Washington, DC)  Mark McClellan, Director Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy
 Gregory Daniel, Deputy Director Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy
 Jeffrey Moe, Duke Global Health Institute
 David Ridley, Professor and Faculty Director of the Health Sector Management Program at The Fuqua School of Business
 New Leading Business Indicators  Shane Dikolli, Professor and Associate Dean of Faculty Engagement, The Fuqua School of Business
 Collaborative Team Success  Edward Marshall, Adjunct Professor of Management at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and Founder and Managing Partner of The Marshall Group
 How Do Consumers Make Decisions?  Rick Larrick, Michael W. Krzyzewski University Professor in Leadership at Duke University's Fuqua School of Business
 Happiness at Work Jordan Etkin, Assistant Professor of Marketing, The Fuqua School of Business

 

2016 Program Topics

Topic Speaker
 Bond Market Biases  Bill Mayew, Associate Professor of Accounting, The Fuqua School of Business
 Corporate Innovation: Maintaining an Entrepreneurial Culture in Large Corporations  Aaron Chatterji, Professor of Strategy, The Fuqua School of Business, and former senior economist with the White House Council of Economic Advisers
 The Promises and Pitfalls of Health Care Consumerism  Peter Ubel, Professor of , The Fuqua School of Business, Physician, and Behavioral Scientist
 Forecasting Market Share in the US Pharmaceutical Market  David Ridley, Professor and Faculty Director of the Health Sector Management Program at The Fuqua School of Business
 Choice Architecture: Using Behavioral Insights to Improve Decisions  Rick Larrick, Michael W. Krzyzewski University Professor in Leadership at Duke University's Fuqua School of Business.