November 21st: Do Inverted Yield Curves Still Precede Recessions?
Duke Executive Education invites you to our next Business & Bagels event featuring Finance Professor Campbell Harvey, a leading financial expert and co-founder of the Duke CFO Survey. Professor Harvey will discuss how inverted yield curves foreshadow the future state of our economy and how they impact your business’s investments and hiring plans, as well as your personal finances.
Prepare now for an economic downturn
Professor Harvey’s research demonstrates that yield curves have inverted 8-18 months before each economic recession since the 1960s. An inversion occurs when long-term yields, such as on a 10-year Treasury bond, are lower than short-term yields, as for a three-month Treasury bill. His indicator is widely followed by businesses and policy makers.
In both the second and third quarters of 2019, the yield curve was inverted leading to a recession "code red." While the yield curve has recently uninverted, Professor Harvey’s research indicates not all is fine just yet. His model links the slope of the yield curve to economic growth, and whether that’s currently flat, slightly upward sloping, or inverted, the current state indicates low growth. Investors, executives, and consumers should still heed these signs and prepare for slower economic growth.
As the possibility of a recession looms, Professor Harvey will explain how you can take steps to protect both your firm’s investments as well as your own, potentially resulting in a “soft-landing.”
You will leave with an understanding of how deploying the yield curve and other indicators can enhance risk management at your firm
Follow Professor Harvey on LinkedIn: http://linkedin.com/in/camharvey